I keep seeing diaries and even pundits in the media still ruminating on what happened in Michigan, and to some extent, Illinois. How did Bernie over-perform the polls so much in both states? What does it say for upcoming states like PA, NY, NJ, MD? I’ll tell you what it means. NOTHING!
Michigan and Illinois were both open primaries. Bernie tends to do very well in primaries/caucuses where literally anyone can vote in. Could be Democrats, Independents, or even some Republicans trying to meddle in our process.
In Michigan, Bernie won overall by 1.5 points. Hillary won Democrats by 18 points. Therefore, one can assume it was the Indies and/or Repubs that put him over by that small margin. In Illinois, Hillary won overall by 2 points. Hillary won Democrats by 15 points. One can assume that had Michigan and Illinois been Closed Primaries, she would have won both states by double digits.
That brings me to the only three states that were Closed Primaries that have already voted: Florida, Louisiana, and Arizona.
In Louisiana, Hillary won by 48 points. In Florida, she won by 31 points. In Arizona, she won by 18 points.
I’ve been seeing a lot of diaries lately about Bernie’s chances going forward. I’ll admit, he’s going to have a great weekend in those caucuses. And his winning streak may continue into the first week of April with Wisconsin and Wyoming. He may close the delegate gap to around 100 delegates. It would be hard, but certainly possible. But then...that’s it. His winning streak will be over.
Beginning in mid-April, there’s 6 Closed Primaries in a row with a total of 442 delegates at stake. With Bernie’s track record in Closed Primaries, I don’t know how anyone can say that he has a “good chance” of winning a single one of them. The media, for good reason, likes to look at each state’s demographic makeup as a way to predict support for each candidate. That certainly worked in the South with Hillary’s dominance among African Americans in even open primaries. But I barely see anyone in the media mentioning Hillary’s dominance among Registered Democrats, her key to victory going forward. The Closed Primaries in April will be the end of the road for Bernie.
More evidence showing Hillary’s dominance among Democrats.
Iowa
Hillary won the state by 0.3 points. She won Democrats by 17 points.
Massachusetts
Hillary won the state by 1.3 points. She won Democrats by 20 points.
Ohio
Hillary won the state by 9 points. She won Democrats by 29 points.
North Carolina
Hillary won the state by 14 points. She won Democrats by 31 points.
Nevada
Hillary won the state by 5 points. She won Democrats by 18 points.
Missouri
Hillary won the state by 1 point. She won Democrats by 11 points.
Arkansas
Hillary won the state by 36 points. She won Democrats by 61 points.
Georgia
Hillary won the state by 42 points. She won Democrats by 55 points.
Oklahoma
Bernie won the state by 10 points. Hillary won Democrats by 11 points.
New Hampshire
Bernie won the state by 22 points. He won Democrats by 4 points.
Notice a pattern here...
Somebody please tell me again how Bernie is going to win the closed primary states of NY, PA, CT DE, MD, NJ, and RI?